NCAA Week 4 Picks ATS

Year to date > 11-11. (If you haven’t been following since last year, I finished 68-52-1, you can follow along on Twitter @FantasyJesusDFS since these write ups aren’t a regular thing)

The writing comes and goes, but at least for this week I decided I’d put some words behind the picks rather than just tweeting them out.

Quick Note – unlike my PGA betting, the football is much less “by the numbers”. It’s a combo of numbers, watching, edges/spots/situational. The public is very reactionary in general, but especially when it comes to football, which I feel can lead to some nice lines when people don’t realize or didn’t see the reason for said line. Keep that in mind when scratching your head at some of my ugly cards.

It was a slow start to the season but we got back on track with a solid 6-1 week.

Going through this weeks lines, nothing jumped out right away and when I finally looked at the names I wrote down I was slightly disgusted if we’re being truthful (yeah, that is THE Kansas Jayhawks).

CHECK BACK IN (or follow on Twitter) >> the card may be added to before Saturday. I will try to update the write up as that occurs.

Card:
Virginia -5
Kansas +7.5
Northern Illinois +10
UL Monroe +5
Add >> La Tech +21

Virginia -5
Although Louisville may get a slight boost starting Cunningham at QB, it’s a tough spot for the (RS) freshmen QB. He has been a run-first QB and Virginia’s rush defense is nothing to scoff at. UVA has had an offensive injection as well with their transfer QB, Perkins, and I don’t think Louisville is going to slow him down. Overall, tough spot for the Cards on the road to open up ACC play.

Kansas +7.5
I brush of Kansas almost every time they come up over the past few seasons and I didn’t it earlier this year when the faced CMU and the Jayhawks stomped them. So yes, this will probably end poorly! KU has benefited greatly from turnovers, and although variance says they won’t continue at this pace, it’s a positive that they’ve only turned the ball over once this season. Baylor is also still play mix-match at QB and I personally think it affects game flow. Neither team has played a tough schedule, but KU is carrying the momentum into this one and although it’s KU, I think the TD+1/2 is a bit too much.

Northern Illinois +10
Can you imagine the groans that will surround FSU if they lose this game!? It’s always a tad scary backing a MAC team against a powerhouse because FSU does have talent but they’re a hot mess. The offense has been abysmal and they needed a 4th quarter comeback to thwart FCS foe, Samford. That said, N. Illy’s offense has been equally bad, and if you’re into total this is perhaps a candidate for the under? Either way, I’ll take 10 points on a solid defensive team going up against a team that has scored only 10 points against non FCS teams. Let’s stick with the theme of fading the train wrecks.

UL Monroe +5
Troy is coming off of a huge upset against Nebraska but if you look at the game, they didn’t play that well (Nebraska was BRUTAL). Not only is this a let down spot, Troy will have to play better this week to beat Monroe and I’m not sure they do it. Monroe’s issue will be getting stops. They have an offense that can move the ball but they’ve struggled stopping teams, especially through the air. Troy likes to run as much as pass, and I think at home, Monroe can get the stops they will need to pump the brakes on Troy’s jubilation from last week.

La. Tech +21
This is another classic letdown spot for LSU coming off a huge win over Auburn, and the early win over Miami in week 1. The game in between those saw their offense sputter against SE Louisiana. La Tech has an offense that can move the ball and although this will easily be their toughest test, they are capable of scoring and I’m not convinced LSU can score enough to run away from a 21 point spread.

PS – some of these number may no longer be available or they aren’t the best number that was available at one time. I don’t always have time to sit around and get the best number, so as always – use this info and these opinions at your own risk!

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