P70, 6,841 yards
The location of Jim Furyk’s 58!
I’m all over the place this week, bear with me.
Knox 50/1 + T5
Harman 65/1 + T5
Grillo 66/1 + T5
Si Woo Kim 100/1 + T5
Moore -115 over Bubba
Reed -115 over Day
Yeah, that is a very short number to be backing Moore at, however his course history and recent form is there for me to get on board. He’s absolutely crushing T2G he just has not been able to find it on the greens at all this year. It is a positive they are playing poa greens but it’s crazy how much worse he’s been this year compared to his long term SG:P. I’ll take the chance.
Cantlay is somebody I’ve backed regularly on shorter courses. I’m not sure what was wrong, perhaps he just had an off week at Colonial, but he has a higher T10% on shorter courses than his average T10 finish. A great T2G player, the question for him is always on the greens. I like the talent at the longer price.
I missed the better number on Knox when it opened but still bit at 50. He’s definitely in form and had a solid US Open as well. Common theme amongst my bets is they struggle on the greens. When he won here he did it with his approach, and he’s been positive in that category 5 of his last 6 events.
Harman is a hunch bet. He’s gained 1.296 T2G over his last 8 rounds, and ranks 12th in the field in SG: Field differential at 1.49. A majority of those are from his ball striking and he’s typically a solid putter. I bet him T5 as well hoping to ride some form into a hot putter.
Grillo may be the most popular bet this week and for good reason. I’ve been on him quite a bit since the Houston Open and he’s cashed two T5s for me but has yet to get into the winners circle. It’s quite simple – he’s playing solid golf right now and it’s so close to coming together. The number is just too big for how he’s playing, despite his MC at the US Open. I’ll be riding the Grillo wave for the foreseeable future.
Si Woo is a blind bet most weeks, however he’s really popped on short tracks, Dye designs, and field strength doesn’t matter. It is unfortunate that he has no form coming in, but he’s won without it before and his last two T5’s came without it as well.
It’s a mixed bag for me this week and there are quite a few studs at the top of the field who could easily bag this one. Spieth is the defending champ and also has a great history at shorter tracks where you need to pick your targets carefully. Not sure where his head is at but I’ll be staying away. Of the upper tier I would prefer Paul Casey or our boy Brooks.
My Model T5
1. Paul Casey 9.6k
2. Brooks Koepka 11.3k
3. Ryan Moore 9.0k
4. Justin Thomas 11.5k
5. Jordan Spieth 10.6k
No surprises there as they are all priced accordingly. Also showing well in the model are Cantlay and Grillo, which makes sense and they could be chalk this week. Lovemark (7.8k) and Henley (7.6k) are two lower priced golfers that I think bring value this week. C.T. Pan (7.6k) has positive trending form with two solid showings at this course in the past. He won’t need distance off the tee and he’s been hitting 70%+ GIR, giving himself ample amounts of birdie chances.
You can make a solid balanced lineup if you choose to fade all of the studs up top and Bubba Watson is sitting there at 8.8k. I’m not much of a Bubba person but his course history can’t be denied. If you’re into course history angle, you must give Berger a serious look as well, with two stellar starts at this track.