The hardest test in golf (although sometimes due to gimmicks by the USGA). Personally, the US Open is 3rd on my list of majors (Masters, Open, US Open, PGA) but that doesn’t mean I’m not pumped.
SHINNEOCK HILLS. You know it’s going to be brutal compared to last years event at Erin Hills and that’s fine. I don’t mind winnings scores of -3 to -6 for the US Open I just hope they don’t over compensate due to last years birdie fest. I heard earlier on Hank Haney’s radio show that the USGA is leaving two greens longer than others to make sure the ball can hold…hoping they aren’t over thinking this.
If you want a serious course breakdown, I’m not your guy. Many people have been there, done their write ups, and have much better insight. Check the google machine, twitter, No Laying Up, Pat Mayo, and the likes. I’m primarily here to provide you my thoughts (bickering included) on who I’m backing and looking to play on Draftkings.
It is a links course on Long Island so wind will be a factor and it could turn into a pseudo Open Championship (much longer). I don’t think I’m going to be looking at anything crazy compared to others – Distance, accuracy (but more distance), approach – but I’m going to be mixing in scoring average vs field, and my approach model. 100ish golfers are going to miss this cut so you’ll have a chance to do damage if you can get 6/6 lineups + the winner included. I’ll be trying to narrow down a core and the mixing in some potential low owned shots with upside when it comes to Draftkings.
Gambling wise – I’m just looking for the best number on certain skill sets and then a few fanboy bets (see Tiger & Rickie parlay). I want a bit of pedigree, I want winners, I want birdies ops, GIR, fairly accurate, carry distance, form…mix it into a pot, and nobody is perfect (but DJ is kinda close, I just won’t lay that number).
I’m not often a top of the card bettor however in events in which top names take down most often, I’ll go heavier 50/1 and lower. The Tiger bet was a fan bet, simple and plain. Can he win? I’ve seen enough to say yes but 18/1 are not true odds, he should be higher but he’s Tiger. His putter was the sole reason he didn’t with The Memorial and that’s typically not his weak point. I had been wanting to get on Fowler, despite his lack of winning. He has a solid track record in majors minus the trophy. He’s coming off a really good weekend at Muirfield, pegs greens, one of the more accurate OTT of the top end golfers, and has a solid short game. I just hope he can mentally get over the hurdle if he finds himself in contention come Sunday. He rallied from behind at The Masters to make a run which is promising.
There are a couple others at the top who I could be bothered to back, but didn’t. Rose is fitting and has been in form all season. Rahm is close but unlike Fowler his mental hurdle is anger. Would not shock me if he won, but I won’t be on it. Koepka is currently 18/1 but I hopped on 45/1 during his final round at Wells Fargo – he’s since shot three rounds of 68 in his last eight. I’d say his form is quite back in time to defend his title. Narrower fairways, more wind (most likely) won’t make this the birdie fest Erin Hills was so hopefully Brooks can keep the drives in play and he’s as lethal as anybody due to his aggressive play.
Grace is a bit of a wildcard for me but he his most of what I’m looking for and I like how he battles. His iron game makes up for him being shorter OTT than true bombers and I trust him if it gets windy. He’s played well in majors, including the Open single round record and I like his price but truly hoping it moves closer to 50 before his tee time. Leishman was kind of out of left field for me, loosely fitting what I was looking for, and my gut said take the 66. It’s not my favorite bet of the card but it has been submitted so here we are. Top notch tipping!
I could not pass on my man, Fleetwood. This bet was made in January and I did think it would be lower but luckily for those who didn’t bet him yet – you still can! One of the longest and accurate drivers in the field, hits 70%+ of his greens, long term, and has contended in heavy fields. His putter is where he lapses so I’m hoping he can have even an average week with the flat stick and he’ll be around the top on Sunday. The Stanley number is insanely high. Like Fleetwood he’s long and accurate and he’s coming off of a great Memorial. Also like Tommy, if the putter shows up at all it’s hard to imagine him not having a chance to be near the top. He has a higher bogey rate so hopefully he will be avoiding the big numbers.
Tiger 18/1 *Fanboy, but T2G game has been fantastic
Fowler 28/1 *Parlay w/Caps
Leishman 66/1 (This was more of a rando/gut bet)
Koepka +110 T20
Draftkings – my random musings
I don’t think you need to get too cute unless you’re trying to win the milli maker or the giant $4 and even then the pricing is soft enough that unless you have sound reasons, you don’t need to chase unknowns at low ownership. Plenty of the soft price studs will soak up ownership and it always leaves a vacuum on some talented individuals.
Fleetwood, Casey, and Rose are the first few that standout to me as chalk but that doesn’t mean it’s an auto-fade. They are stellar golfers and can be played if you think they are going to perform very well just be sure to have a couple golfers with them that you believe will be below 10%. If you’re playing multiple LUs and you love the chalk golfer then try to go overweight on them to get ahead of the field. My view is – there is no point in playing chalk guys at the field level. Either fade or go over weight when it comes to large field GPPs. Single Entry can use some different strategies.
Koepka 9.0k – Defending champ isn’t getting much respect with the salary due to missing a majority of this season with a wrist injury but I’ve liked what I’ve seen since he’s come back. Brooks is a major slayer, having T20’d 11 of his career 17 attempts, including 9 of his last 10. His talent and that track record is more than enough for me at that price.
Cantlay 7.7k – He has my attention at this price. Lacking major (or other) pedigree but that aside he has the skill set to compete here and is coming off a 4th at The Memorial. Long off the tee, scores well on P4s, with the major concern being his bogey rate. Bogies can turn into doubles real quick at a US Open.
Stenson 8.8k – Will be popular at this price. Game seems built for this even if he’s not hitting a driver. He can pipe his 3-wood which leads to his crazy high “Driving Accuracy”. Over his last three tournaments he’s hitting almost 80% GIR he just can’t putt. I’m fine with that. Putting has never been his thing but if he can keep getting it close, having more opportunities than others this week will be fine due to the nature of this event.
Kyle Stanley 7.2k – At this price he’s worth the play despite no major pedigree. In fact, he hasn’t played in many majors at all but he has won and he has the T2G game to succeed. Crushing the greens, accurate OTT, decent scrambler (probably better than the # due to putting), he’s just a bad putter. #Theme.
Hideki 8.9k – Haven’t heard his name much early in US Open discussion but he’s quietly put together solid back to back tournaments at the Byron Nelson and The Memorial. He definitely has the game for a US Open victory and if he’s not going to garner much ownership he’s worth using (hell, I think he’s worth using anyway). His approach has been mediocre so hopefully over these last two starts he’s found what he needs to be elite again with the irons.
Sam Burns 6.4k – He’s priced down with all of the scrubs and that’s just wrong. It’s only his 2nd major (MC in 2016 US) but he made the most of a handful of PGA starts earlier this year but has missed three straight cuts. If you’re looking to save some money you could do a lot worse in this range.
That’s where I’m at after my first look at pricing/odds. I’m sure I’ll add a couple bets/h2h’s, perhaps some T20’s. DK pool will also grow and shrink and I change my mind 100x throughout the week.
It should be a fun week and I’m ready for the 2nd major of the season. Good luck everybody – we hit Brooks last year so let’s get another this year!