**Fair Warning – with all the US Open qualifying that went on today, some golfers may be w/d from the St. Jude if they clinched a spot. Keep that in mind before Thursday**
Off to TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN for the last time as a regular PGA event before changing to host of a WGC event next year. Southwind is a tough course with the winning score typically averaging -11 over the last 8 years. Daniel Berger has won the last two trips here and looking through, big names normally aren’t taking this down (not many show up to play it either) but there are a few big horses in the field.
Bermuda greens are back in play this week which can be tricky for many golfers and the greens are small so SG:Around The Green will also be something to look at. Hitting the greens is always important but this is a good week to really check out the GIR+ stat we publish which accounts for GIR plus pars made when a GIR is missed. With such limited scoring it will be important for golfers to avoid as many bogies as possible since there aren’t as many birdies out there to make up for lost strokes. A lot of golfers throughout the years have also echoed how important it is to be playing from the fairway on this course and if it’s hot (like it usually is) the longer hitters are able to club down and let the ball roll out.
Below is my card and the general theme is solid OTT (a few guys are slightly negative over 5T but not horrendous, their approach offsets) plus I wanted to see them near the top of my approach model. Thornberry is a TN kid who’s played well here so tossing some $$. Yes, I’m aware guys don’t win three tournaments in a row however Berger’s been approaching very well in key areas and although he hasn’t been great OTT hopefully his vibes will be back at this course and he loves these greens.
Daniel Berger 28/1
Peter Uihlein 35/1
Luke List 50/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 50/1
Ben Crane 80/1
Braden Thornberry 100/1
Tom Hoge 130/1
Joel Dahmen 130/1
Chad Campbell 200/1
Shot Clock Masters (Euro)
Dustin Johnson 11.7k – It was a tough choice up top and I’m not sure I made the right one but I gave the slight edge to DJ over Brooks. DJ has been slightly better OTT and better on approach but his putting has been the worst on Bermuda whereas Brooks is positive on these surfaces. Flip a coin. (I like Stenson at 10.4k as well)
Tony Finau 9.4k – If Charl made more birdies he’d be here (I’ll still play him) so I’ll slot Finau slightly ahead of him. I have them essentially dead-locked so I give the nod to the guy who scores more on DK/higher upside. Positive on approach at OTT and this is the type of field he could get another win on. Not to many studs to contend with and he will be rewarded if he keeps the ball in the fairway.
Luke List 8.3k – We were playing a lot of list early this season and he seems quite under priced in this field. One of the top golfers OTT recently and great approach but he needs to stick them closer due to his putter. Quite simply though, he should cost more money. (Overall, big fan of the 8k range this week)
Joel Dahmen 7.1k – Form is there, OTT+APP is there (I know people combine this for “ball striking” but I have a separate approach model) and he finished well here last year. A lot is on Mr. Dahmen’s side coming into this week and I’m hoping he takes advantage of his accuracy and length off the tee.