I’m going to change it up this week with a focus on the staking side of golf. It’s way more of a passion of mine than DFS (which I greatly enjoy) but something about beating the book is more satisfying. The beauty of it is that hitting an outright can be similar to hitting a decent GPP so I can still get my kicks.
The reason for the change up is simple; the same thing over and over can get boring (plus nobody pays me for this so I’ll do what I please). If you’ve followed me for any length of time you’d already know that along with DFS I’ve always put out a betting card as well and it’s been a solid 2017/18 season which I’m looking to continue.
Memorial. Muirfield Village. Tour is staying on bent grass so keep that in mind. All pros seem to have their preferences but it’s not always a huge difference in result. However, if you’re looking for a tie-breaker, it’s something to consider. It’s often compared to Augusta due to super fast greens with some undulation and the ease of hitting fairways, but if you miss here you will be in some thick lettuce. The major difference is unlike Augusta a lot of golfers will not be grippin-n-rippin from the teebox. A lot of 3 woods and driving irons will be used to get in the right position in the fairways.
So, the million dollar question – how do you predict who’s going to do that!? The beauty and difficulty of golf betting. Outright wins are fun, but over the years I’ve allocated less to the outright and more to the T10/20s, some head to heads, and props. Picking a winner out of a130+ golfers is difficult even when you pick a guy who performs incredibly well (ie Brooks, Grillo, Na this week running into the Rose buzzsaw). There is money to be made other than hitting 80/1 like we have a couple times this season (which is a nice cherry on top of winning the other bets). I’m not telling you what to do – that’s all you – I’m just sharing how I approach it.
That being said, below are the golfers I’ll be backing outright!
Pat Perez 160/1
It’s one of those weeks where although I like a few guys near the top, I don’t like the number. Stenson/Leishman were close to additions, but in the end I started with Grace. He looked good over at Wentworth and his last 8 rounds on Tour show form. His SG App lacks a bit, but he’s hit 77% of GIR and racking up the birds. If he can be a bit better off the tee I see him contending on Sunday.
I move on to another South African, but with a little more pause. I like the number per his form but it is concerning he doesn’t win much, and no wins on the PGA Tour other than his 2010 Open Championship. Onto some good news, though his overall approach could use some work, he’s sticking it closer than most. It’s a bit of a dice roll but if he continues pegging the flags, I’m optimistic.
Moore may be my favorite bet of the week. He’s gaining just over 2 strokes per round ball-striking but his short game has murdered any chance of winning recently. Historically Moore putts well on bent, and overall, but he’s struggled over the last few months. The few tournaments his putter flashed he finished 7th and 5th. It’s nice to see he’s pin seeking so I’m speculating that a preferred putting surface brings back some confidence.
The next two guys on the list, Horschel/Perez are chasing approach as well. Do you sense a theme? You may look at Perez’s recent form and gag, but when you dig deeper you’ll see he’s putting the ball where it needs to be, just not often enough. His misses have been bad but the positive approaches have been spot on. Billy is in a similar boat but better off the tee. The fairways aren’t hard to hit here but it’s still nice to know you’re backing guys who will be in them. It comes down to limiting mistakes but he’s won in deep fields before and with positive signs I couldn’t pass on the number.
Niemann overall has been playing some outstanding golf so for 130/1 I’ll hop on. The ball striking is superb over his last 12 rounds the only concern is his putting on these greens. However, the rest of his game should have his number smaller even if he is new to the Tour. He’s missed 2 of his 4 cuts, but placed T10 in the two he made. If he’s not ready to win, he’s at least worth a look for you at T10/T20 if you can’t pull the trigger on an outright.
If you’d like to reference the stats I’ve mentioned, CLICK HERE for the rolling stats we publish weekly for the last five and 10 tournaments.
As the week progresses I’ll add in any head to heads, T20’s, or props that I see fit throughout the week.
Head to Head
Aaron Wise over Benny An (+100)
Ryan Moore over CH3 (-125)
First Round Leader
Keith Mitchell 85/1
David Lingmerth 120/1
Euro Tour (Italian Open)