AT&T Byron Nelson Draftkings Picks & Bets
I’m excited for this week and hopefully I’m not let down. I love watching links golf and although there isn’t an ocean, Trinity Forest + Texas winds will hopefully deliver.
I’m not going to break down the course much but the scorecard I found has it listed at 7,450 yards, Par 72. It has some beast holes but by all accounts these greens are typically speedy and the wind should help on some holes. The pictures remind me of Erin Hills, host of the 2017 US Open. This is going to lead me to golfers with solid approach and scrambling skills. Around the green could be tough so give me the scramblers, approach, and past history of solid wind play.
Nothing surprising aside from Crane, but I’ll get to him further down. Most shocking is how much higher Spieth rates than Kuchar. If you follow along, you’ll noticed when I post my T5s that often times the largest gap in rating is 1.5-2 points. This is the largest gap this season.
Jordan Spieth 11.9k – Will be interesting to see what others are thinking on Spieth. I for one, am not scared off by his awful putting. He’s been dreadful all season but everything else is still clicking and he’s scratching out finishes. He won’t win while 3-putting from five feet but he sure is the class of this field and it’s not very close in my eyes. You could make a case for fading if you think he’s going to be 30%+ owned but for now I’m eating that chalk. Could make it tough to build a decent lineup with this field, but remember – 70ish golfers are going to make the cut, so just because you don’t regular play a guy doesn’t mean he isn’t a decent play this week.
Jimmy Walker 9.5k – Spieth may be the class of the field, but Walker may be playing the best golf of anybody. He propelled me up the leader board at The PLAYERS and now we’re back to Texas, where he just finished 4th at the Valero. The putter is hot, scrambling well (in part due to the putter) and he’s hitting a good amount of GIRs. He’s a known name coming off a 2nd place so I assume he will be popular as well but this doesn’t appear to be the time to jump off the wagon.
Beau Hossler 9.0k – His putting has faded a bit but he’s still scrambling well, long off the tee, and accurate (so hopefully won’t find himself in the native grass). He hasn’t dazzled much since his heartbreaking loss at Shell but this weak field pushes him towards the top. Still has strong adjusted scores and high GIR so the birdie chances should be there.
CH3 8.7k – I haven’t played Chuckie 3 Sticks in some time but that will change this weekend. Coming off successful Wells Fargo/Players to go with his already consistent (although winless) game. It’s a season of breaking winless streaks so perhaps the time is now? Decent GIR, solid scrambler, and his price is lower than what I think it should be in this field.
Peter Uihlein 8.5k – He’s been very inconsistent this season but I like him on bermuda greens and at a links style course. I don’t have profiles on every golfer here but I’d be Uihlein is near the top with links experience from his time spent in Europe. I’m not sure exactly how much that will benefit him- he will still have to play well – but in this weak field I think it sets up well for him. He’s coming off a 5th place at Wells Fargo but his week could be overly quickly if he can tighten up off the tee. These fairways are wide but once you’re off them, it’s going to be a penalty one way or another.
Keith Mitchell 7.8k – He’s been a Friday warrior so maybe better off betting FRL but he’s flashed enough for me to go back to the well. I wish he’s had some higher finishes but he’s been fading on the weekends. Don’t have a clue how he plays on links style, but the last weak field he was in, that happened to have wind as well, was Punta Cana and he finished 2nd. Promising (love small samples)! He’s a birdie machine, I just hope he stops being a bogey machine as well. There are some beast holes on this scorecard so hopefully his distance gives him more wedges in to these greens.
Ben Crane 7.7k – Not a name I anticipated having interest in but upon doing some digging, I’ll ride the recent consistency and flash from the Valero (also a crap field). Not much of a birdie maker but he’s been giving himself plenty of chances (68% GIR) and has been very accurate off the tee so he shouldn’t be shooting himself in the foot much.
Other low(er) salary interest – Putnam, Conners, G-Mac
I’m not sure how far down I’ll be dipping. It gets gross quickly when navigating below 7.5k.
Outright Card – went a little overboard on the deep punts this week due to weak field so I’m taking some chances on small samples of golf.
Holmes 80/1 & 75/1
Haas 110/1 (he sucks right now but is better than this number, in this field)
Mitchell 110/1 (should probably FRL him)
I’m going to try and get a parlay in with Jimmy Walker at 22/1 as well. Not sure what parlay odds will be yet. Could fail and I eat the money.