I’ll spare you the 5th Major jokes, but at least I mentioned it!
Off to TPC Sawgrass, infamous for it’s #17 Island Green, along with having one of the deepest fields and largest purses on Tour. All the big boys show up for this one which can make for fun viewing. It’s a short P72 but distance isn’t the key because it’s a Pete Dye designed course. Dial up those acing their approach shots.
Model T5 (not tailored to course fit)
I know it seems odd to fade the guy your model spits out at the top but it’s more than likely what I’m going to do here unless I get the sense nobody else is going to play Rahm. He’s been outstanding, overall, all while struggling with his approach, but that could really hurt him this week when his best attribute is nullified by the course. I could be regret the choice but with the deep field and softer pricing here there are still plenty of top end golfers I like. DJ is in a similar boat as Rahm where his biggest weapon is taken away, but DJ has been great with approach. He’s only played six tournaments but has not finished worse than 16th, with a win to start the year. His success here has been muted but he had his personal best finish last year in 12th place.
Rory McIlroy 11.6k – Rory didn’t come up winning like everybody seemed to predict, but aside from his awful second round he didn’t play poorly. He also wasn’t owned as highly as I would have guessed so I’m hoping this week he’s the same or less. Sure, his OTT advantage is nullified here but he’s aware of that and has spoken about how he changed his game plan for this course. His scoring has been outstanding and I’ll be jumping back on the Rory train this week.
Jordan Spieth 11.1k – Last we saw Jordan he was making his incredible run on Sunday at Augusta (Zurich is useless to me). He has missed three straight cuts here so maybe that will scare people away. His scoring it near the top of the field, he scrambles well and gives himself an insane amount of birdie looks. Hopefully the putting yips are fading away.
Rickie Fowler 9.6k – His putter betrayed him at Wells Fargo, which is odd, but I’ll be back to him at Sawgrass. He has quite the mixed history here but with Rickie it’s about surviving his mistakes that always seem inevitable. Always seems to have that big number that bites him and if he can avoid that for a weekend he will be in the mix.
Henrik Stenson 8.8k – I played him at Augusta when many were afraid due to his history and he had a great week and at this price I’m ready to pull the trigger again. He does everything well to have success here. Like Spieth he gives himself and insane amount of birdie looks, and capitalizes often. Monitor the chalk at this price.
Bryson DeChambeau 8.3k – The Mad Scientist has been killing it lately and I don’t see a reason to back off now. His approach game is top notch, which will be needed here (especially because his short game is what’s keeping him from winning). Three top fivess in his last four events and if he takes advantage of the P5s he may have won last week. Monitor the chalk, but I’d even be willing to eat it on Bryson this week.
Adam Hadwin 7.3k – Hadwin has been playing very consistent golf this season and his approach has spiked recently and his shorter play off the tee won’t force him into hitting longer irons to greens than everybody else. His birdie rate is up and with his putting skills, he will have ample chances if he keeps hitting the greens like he has been.
Salary Savers – Levy, Landry, Lowry, Lovemark
All the L’s were not intended and I hope it’s not a sign
The PLAYERS Outright Card
Tiger 40/1 (T5)
Bryson 50/1 (T5)
Grillo 70/1 (T5)
Simpson 80/1 (T5)
Hadwin 130/1 (T10)
Knox 300/1 (T20)
Rocco Forte Outright Card