What a weekend at RBC.
Sadly, very few people in North America got to watch any of it live! We found a half decent stream of the British broadcast but it was slightly behind and even they had to deal with CBS commercial breaks. The PGA Tour had been doing a much better job broadcasting, but that was tough to have a playoff happening and not be able to watch it. Si Woo also had a tough stretch of putting costing us a 100/1 winner. We did however hit two T5s (List 12.5/1 & Si Woo 21/1) as well as Jon Rahm outright parlay at 21/1. If you follow on twitter you would have seen that I tweeted out I bet on Satoshi 6/1 (for 1.75) when he was the clubhouse leader because the wind was picking up quickly and I already had Si Woo and List safely in 1st/2nd. Turned out to be a wise move, as that bet netted 10 more units for the weekend. That is one of the reasons I suggest following on Twitter if you already follow my other picks. Now – off to Texas!
Valero Texas Open Notes
TPC San Antonio, notorious for being windy, and difficult. 7400 yard, Par 72. Winning score has only been lower than -12 in two of the eight tournaments played here. Five of the last eight winners have also been 54 hole leader. May not be as lucrative as others betting live winners after round 3! Three of the four par 5s are not reachable in two for a majority of players, and nobody if the wind isn’t giving some assist. Check the forecast – in 2015, wind destroyed an entire wave of golfers.
My Model T5 (could change slightly, still tweaking some data for adj. scores)
These are not adjusted for field strength, and if it were, Mitchell & Ancer would be bump down some (haven’t played SUPER weak, but missing some depth). That being said, Mitchell is on top of this for a reason. He’s coming off of a 6th at Houston and a 2nd place finish in Punta Cana, and hasn’t missed a cut on Tour this calendar year. He smashes greens, has distance, and is accurate enough to not worry. Kieth is going to win, and this week would be perfect to get the first W. Ancer is in the same boat as Mitchell, with slightly better form, and he’s a local. They are priced low for a reason, but in this weak field, it’s the perfect opportunity to take advantage of the low prices. We know why List is here – guy is on an incredible run, he just can’t finish off a tournament. Scott is returning to this tournament for the first time in years, and I talk more about him below. Kuchar is interesting, because he is one of the top golfers in this field but holy cow at that price. He was 11.5k last year, and scored 55 points (he was the most expensive, but finished 54th in scoring). He’s another guy, that although sneaks quite a few T10s, doesn’t win. That is A LOT of money to try and pay off for a guy that doesn’t win.
Each week, I run through the last four years of tournaments searching for trends that lead to success for DFS. Below are the golfers that match this week.
On to some player thoughts:
Luke List 10.0k – So the question for me on Luke pertains to mental game. Is this failing down the stretch wearing him out? 10k is quite a bit for a guy who falters more than he doesn’t on Sundays. He rates out very well due to recent play, but the price is high for him. I’m not sure where I’m at with him this week, but if I think he’s going to be higher owned I’ll pass.
Adam Scott 9.8k – If people are paying for List, I’ll go to Scott. Past champion here, but hasn’t played the course (on tour) since 2011. Checks some of the big boxes I’m looking at as far as overall good golfer, long off the tee, makes birds, and in good recent form.
Jaime Lovemark 7.7k – Stands out for the same reasons Scott does, and although he doesn’t have many top finishes this season, this field is lacking firepower which is perfect for Lovemark. He’s been more accurate off the tee lately, scrambles well, and has been hitting a decent amount of greens.
Zach Johnson 8.0k – I’ve spoke about distance but you can have success here without it, due to the shorter par 4s, and on the 5s, most can’t reach so ZJ laying up alongside everybody else. He’s had some solid finishes here and I like where the game is at, despite no recent T10s.
JB Holmes 7.8k – He’s a course horse without serious contentions but has a handful of T15s. His putter has been letting him down, but on a ballstrikers course he should be giving himself plenty of chances and that part of his game has been great. I imagine owernship could gravitate to him in this price range.
Nate Lashley 6.9k – Want to take a flyer? Lashley placed 18th at Houston and 28th at Punta Cana but his overall profile fits here. Long off the tee, pounds greens, and scramble well enough. If Ancer soaks up a lot of ownership at the same price, you could do worse than slip Lashley in his place in a LU or 2.
Keegan Bradley 7.9k – It would be negligent of me to not bring up Keegs, if for only to say I’m not playing him. He burns me often and although he fits the profile I’m looking at here he’s far to inconsistent, with not near enough upside for me. Sure he’s randomly found it twice this season but the rest of his events have been lack-luster and I’d rather chance a different golfer in this price range.
Outright Betting Card
A. Scott 30/1
X. Schauffele 40/1
J. Lovemark 70/1
J. Holmes 80/1
T. Mullinax 160/1
A. Ancer 180/1
K. Mitchell 200/1
I realize many of those prices aren’t available anymore, but the first thing I do on Monday is get in what I’m looking for just in case. I will typically tweet them out as I bet them also, so be sure to follow me on Twitter @fantasyjesusDFS!
I will also be adding my Euro Tour bets when I make them – looking to hit back to back weeks!