RBC Heritage – Harbour Town
Par 71 – 7,100 yards
To start off, let’s take a look at my Top 5 from my overall model (which does not include course history or correlation)
HADWIN HAS WITHDRAWN!
The two golfers at the top are no surprise, and 4 of the 5 are heading over from Augusta. Personally, I won’t be playing DJ. He’s in this field due to sponsorship and although it’s in his home state, he never plays it, and the few times he has he’s MC. He’s also talented enough to sleep walk through and win it. I am interested in using Casey in a LU or two, but I’ll wait and see how they come together. I also like Harman from the top of the pile, even though he didn’t fall into the T5.
Hadwin and List are both riding solid form into this tournament which vaulted them up the ranks, and then there’s Molinari – consistently price at 7.5k no matter the field. Molinari’s scrambling leaves a bit to be desired at a course that puts an emphasis on short game, but he has made the cut his last two trips, including a 22nd place last year.
Stat Trends –
Each week I go back through the last 4 tournaments played at the course and try to pick out the common denominators for those who finished well, but more importantly, who scored well for DK purposes. The trend this week fit 26 previous golfers, 23 of which made the cut. Below are the golfers who fit it this week.
The top three aren’t a surprise, but the bottom three may test the trend! Cook, Glover, and especially Landry, don’t have the sharpest form coming into this week. I do think they are worth a look in GPPs if you’re looking for cheap punts to make the cut. Distance isn’t a concern at Harbour Town, and those three are accurate off the tee, scramble well, and have avoided making a lot of bogey’s.
Landry hasn’t played since the end of February (not sure entirely why) but he wasn’t playing well at all. Since then, at the end of March, he has become a father so perhaps he will have some of that coveted baby swag (ha)! Either way, he’s the riskiest of the bunch and will be far the lowest owned.
Grillo 8.6k – I was on Grillo at Shell and saw no reason to go away from him this week. What kept him off of being a strong fit here was his long form scrambling, but over his last five events he’s scrambling at just over 65%. He’s been accurate, crushing greens, and his adjusted scores have been strong.
Harman 9.8k – For the price, Brian is my favorite golfer near the top of the salary pool. Been playing exquisite golf this season, accurate off the tee (common theme!), hits plenty of GIR, and has a good enough short game with a huge aid from his flat stick.
Kisner 8.7k – Somebody I highly considered because if you look at recent results it’s not outstanding, but you saw what he did at a Dye course in the match play, and followed that up with a solid showing at the Masters. He’s played well at this event in the past too. He will probably be popular due to his track record and price and I also like him quite a bit.
Cam Smith 9.0k – Hell of a finish at the Masters and the world finally saw him play due to his late tee time and surge towards the top on Sunday. I’ve preaching short game all over this column and this kid is outstanding around the greens. What makes him a GPP only play for me is he’s not the most accurate off the tee and he racks up a lot of his birdies on P5s. There are 3 this week (2 quite reachable) but he will need to play the P4s relatively mistake free.
Poulter 9.2k – Tough to know if he’s done riding his high from winning Shell to get into Augusta, but he played the weekend there and now comes to a coastal track where he’s had success. His price may keep people away, but his game fits here very well and if people gravitate to Cantlay below him he will be a solid pivot.
Kevin Na 8.2k – He didn’t pop in the model, mainly due to recent form has be shotty, despite some decent finishing positions but he does show up for course fit. Another guy who is accurate, scrambles well enough, and has shown enough form to perhaps find himself into a GPP LU.
Fitzpatrick 7.6k – Says this course is one of his favorites in the world, but he’s MC the last 2 trips. Showed some flash on Saturday at Augusta (when everybody was scoring) but then another above par Sunday. I’ll pass this week.
Donald 7.7k – What do I need to say? Fade at your own risk (like I typically do every year and it doesn’t pan out) I think he’s worth a GPP LU or 2 if you’re making a handful. Full team course history with this play because he has not been playing well at all.
Hadwin 33/1 WD
Molinari 60/1 + E/W
Si Woo 100/1 + T10
Cook 100/1 + T10
T10 – Donald 10/1
It’s grown more than I intended but they are pretty light bets on the bottom 5 guys, with the emphasis at the top.
Be sure to follow me on twitter (@FantasyJesusDFS) if you don’t already. I will be adding some T20 bets, H2H’s, as well as my five bets for the Open de Espana.
Good luck this week!
Edit – Adding Open de Espana selections
Rahm Parlay 3 team 20/1
George Coetzee 26/1
Matt Wallace 35/1
Matthias Schwab 125/1
Pedro Oriol 300/1