Listen to the podcast below for a more in depth analysis on the player field for the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow!
PGA Championship – Quail Hollow
7600 yards, Par 71
The final major of the year is finally here and it is being played at a familiar course. Quail Hollow is typically home to the Wells Fargo Championship, which was moved this season to prepare for the PGA Championship.
I’m typically not a full-blown course history guy because many stats show that it doesn’t always correlate but this week I’m all for it. Going back through past results at Quail Hollow using Fantasy Labs trends, I found that the top players at the course were scoring 7 more points than their salary implied they would! That is a hefty positive move and course history will be baked in heavily into my model. Having said this, please note that the course has gone through some major changes since the last time it was played. In order to beef it up and make it more difficult for the PGA Championship, holes were redesigned, and even new holes created!
I imagine course horses will have some heavy ownership. If you’re mass entering this week you can still afford to be on the chalk and mix it up other ways but if you’re only playing a few lineups, it may not hurt to fade if you want to make a run at taking down a GPP rather than just cashing.
Birdies, driving distance, long term P4 scoring, and P5 scoring also show to be important. Also, keep in mind that recent form in general has proven more successful at Quail Hollow than relying simply on golfers long term form. Our rolling stats page should really come in handy for you this week (and if you’re not using it every week you’re doing it wrong)!
Of course looking into SG: Tee to Green, Approach, and OTT is always a solid choice for reference, especially T2G because it gives a solid overall snapshot of how a golfer has been performing compared to the field. Due to major pricing (which is soft) looking into Vegas odds can help find some mispriced golfers as well. I typically leaves odds off my model though because it gives too much of a boost to the top golfers, even if they’ve been struggling lately. For example, if I bake in odds, Rory jumps quite a bit, and Finau falls to about 6th – but without odds, Finau is atop the list, while Rory finds himself at 15th.
With that, you now know who I will be targeting the most to save salary – Tony Finau. Everything about his game screams he should succeed here and he does have 28th and 16th place finishes in his two trips to Quail Hollow. You would think this track screams Dustin Johnson as well, and he ranks highly for me even with his shaky past at this event. He’s a new golfer since the last time he played here in 2011 so don’t let his course history scare you too much (2 MC in 3 trips). His game is built for this track. Rory will probably be the chalk up top because he OWNS Quail Hollow and he’s a guy you could risk fading if you’re feeling good about another top guy and only building a couple LUs.
My Top Owned Golfers – PGA Championship Model
Favorite Value Plays
Outright/EW Card (bets have been placed throughout the year, so lines may vary)
Rickie Fowler 28/1
Brooks Koepka 33/1
Tommy Fleedtwood 60/1
Thomas Pieters 66/1
Daniel Berger 90/1
Webb Simpson 100/1
Kevin Chappell 150/1
James Hahn 200/1
Last week’s results ($100 entry)
So first off, I realize I forgot to post my RBC lineup last week – it did not cash, 4/6 through cut I believe. My bad, was in a super rush to get thing posted last week. So again, it was a loser/did not cash!
This week – back in the black! Only real let down was Hughes and although I wasn’t expecting fireworks from him I thought he would finish a little higher but that’s the beauty of no-cut and I took a flier on him. I did however think Brooks would be there on Sunday and he wasn’t, but good ol’ Chuckie Hoffman was! Guy will just not quit and I hope he has some left in the tank for next week.