NHL DFS Picks, 11-5-15
Daily Fantasy Hockey Picks, November 5th
Hello, hello. It’s about a month into the season so I will again just give some clarification as to what my goals are here. Each night (time permitting) I will share teams/lines/players that I’m specifically targeting for large tournaments (GPPs). I’d like to clarify that these are not always the typical plays you’ll read as I’m not going to just throw out the chalk plays every night, although I do play them if I like it. I’m trying to win GPPs not just cash in them so often times I will not be on the most popular teams. I use stats/match ups/gut calls to makes my decisions and it’s worked out quite well over the past few seasons, resulting in some GPP victories. I say this because I don’t want people to get frustrated when they aren’t winning. It’s tough. There will be time that I go 4-5 days without cashing in a GPP and then I hit a nice streak on cashing. This is why I started adding my cash core to the bottom of every article as well. If you can become a consistent cash player you can supplement your bankroll while chasing down the glory of winning GPPs. I appreciate all my readers and the message/comments I get and simply wanted to clarify, which I will do throughout the seasons and new readers start following along.
Whew, rant over – let’s get into tonight’s targets! There is a large slate of nine games tonight and I’m quite sure that a couple of my targets will not be owned very much so hopefully they can make use of their match up!
Well, let’s the the chalk play out of the way. The Capitals will be popular but they are also my top team to target on the night as well. Washington produces a lot of scoring chances, has been playing top possession hockey, and they capitalize on their chances. It’s not the the best match up against Boston, but it’s not awful, and considering the Capitals are the my top option I’ll play them. Ovechkin and Oshie produces the most scoring chances and goals and playing their linemate, Kuznetsov, would be the top option. If you don’t want to stack an entire line, Backstrom is the best option after Ovi and Oshie and Niskanen is a solid, and cheap, blue line option. Most will play Carlson but Niskanen has more ice time, produces more scoring chances and has a higher corsi differential.
This is where the readers start to question me, but that’s fine! Calgary is a bit of a dumpster fire but they’re facing a bigger one in the Flyers. Not only does Philly play awful possession hockey, over the last eight games they’ve given up about 220 scoring chances to opponents. Here’s something you may find hard to believe but for this slate, Calgary has created the most scoring chances over the past eight games,
producing four goals or more in six straight games. EDIT – (I had this stats backwards, apologies). So, a lot of chances for vs. a lot of chances give up = (hopefully) GOALS. Here’s where it gets fun – deciding who to play! Honestly, TJ Brodie would be your best bet as a “sure thing” right now. He has 3 points in four games since coming back and he’s under 5k on FD. As for choosing forwards, I’d target the second line of Gaudreau/Bennett/Jones. They’ve been producing the most chances and playing the best hockey for the Flames. EDIT – It appears the Flames have jumbled their lines today and it will be Monahan/Bennett/Gaudrea on the top line. They should be the target.
Why yes, the Sabers are facing off against one of the perceived powerhouse teams in the league – and I’ll be using them in GPPs. Believe it or not, despite Tampa’s recent public perception, the numbers suggest they haven’t been playing all that well this year. They’ve given up almost 200 scoring chances over the last eight games and they’ve already given up 36 goals this season. So, despite Buffalo’s lack of goal scoring this season, they have better possession numbers over the last eight games AND have been producing quite a few scoring opportunities (185). It is a bit of a mismatch, but not the way most people will see it. Now the fun part – guessing who on Buffalo is actually going to produce some goals. Some of the 3rd line is doing OK but they don’t see enough ice time for me to give them a run, so I’ll stick with O’Reilly/Ennis/Deslauriers. Gorges has actually been on the ice for the most scoring chances so you could throw him in on the blue line and hope for the best.
Non GPP Cash Core
W – A. Ovechkin
W – T. Toffoli
W – J. Gaudreau
W – J. Ward (He’s so cheap, getting 18+ minutes, and producing – take a flier to save money)