Week 5 Picks Against The Spread
Last Week’s Record: 3-2, Click Here for Week 4 Article
Season Record: 11-9
Each week I make my top five picks ATS, similar to the Las Vegas Super Contest, in which contestant must pick five games every week for the entire season.
This week’s picks:
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (Away)
Buffalo Bills -2.5 (Away)
Chicago Bears +9 (Away)
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (Away)
Houston -4 (Home)
Baltimore Ravens -6** (WR Core banged up) (Home)
Texans: Dropped Baltimore. I don’t trust their passing game enough to open up a big lead an hold it. I pivoted to Houston who should have a great advantage over Indianapolis with the current QB situation for the Colts. Hassleback will start again but he’s been nursing quite the illness all week, in the hospital as recent as Tuesday. He also hasn’t practiced all week. On a short week I’ll take a risk on the home team who prepped and healthy. Foster returning to the Texans will be greatly appreciated.
Jaguars: I believe the Buccs and Jags are pretty even in how bad they are which leads me to take the points. The Buccs are home but it’s not a long road trip for the Jags and it’s the same environment. The Jags have a (small) leg up at QB with Bortles, and Winston is still turnover prone as he tries to find his way in the NFL. I’ll take the points on a team who is probably only getting points because their on the road.
Bills: This was almost a “wtf line”. I have the Bills as a 6 points favorite, despite their issues/injuries at RB. I think people became excited when they saw Mariota destroy a bad Buccs team in week one, but he’s still a rookie at the end of the day. They played well in a loss to the Colts but Indianapolis is overrated (in my opinion). The Bills are a solid team and Tyrod Taylor continues to impress with his accuracy and legs. I think the Bills will win the game and cover the 2.5 in doing so.
Bears: This is more about fading the Chiefs. It’s not always smart betting on a team you don’t think will win the game but nine points is a lot to cover for a team that doesn’t score much. The Chiefs defense also isn’t as good as it has been recently, giving up 31/game this season. I think the Chiefs win a close one, but don’t have the fire power to pull away.
Ravens: This number was just another mismatch for me. I have the Ravens at about nine points favorites so getting a number three points better looks good to me. Cleveland’s defense is quite awful and I’m not a believer in their offense. If Benjamin can’t catch a deep bomb they are screwed. I believe Baltimore is better than they’ve been early in the season and hopefully they play to their potential against a poor Browns team. But, Ravens do have a banged up WR Core, but Browns haven’t been able to stop the run all season.
Steelers: Mike Vick may not be even a shadow of who he used to be but I don’t think he’s 6 points worse than Big Ben. I think overall the Steelers are a better team than the Chargers and the number is more reflective of Vick starting. With a game under his belt I think Vick will be more comfortable this game and use his weapons more, getting Brown involved. Bell may be the best RB in the NFL and should have a field day against this Chargers defense. It will be close but I think Pittsburgh wins this game late.