Week 1 is in the books and we came out with a winning record. Of course the two games that were lost were the two I was least confident in. This week has a few scarier games than last weeks card but I feel it’s another winnable week overall.
Last Week’s Results: 3-2,
Season Results: 3-2
Each week I will pick my favorite five picks against the spread, copying the setup of the Las Vegas Super Contest. For those that don’t know the Las Vegas Super Contest is a HUGE sports handicapping contest that takes place each year during the NFL season. Each week every contestant must pick 5 games against the spread. At the end of the year, the contestant with the best winning percentage takes down the top prize. The entry fee is $1,500 and last years top prize was $734,000.
Week 2 Picks
Cincinnati Bengals -3
Buffalo Bills Pk
New York Jets +7
Chicago Bears +2
Detroit Lions +3
I can already feel people reading those and thinking, “WTF!?, you’re going to bet those teams?” Many times the uglier the bet the more often it seems to win in the NFL. You have to remember the NFL is the most popular sport in America and in Vegas. The general population feels they know and can predict just as well in Vegas. They are wrong. If it seems to good to be true, it generally is – especially in the world of betting.
Bengals: This pick was simple for me. I think the Bengals are better than the Chargers and that they will win this game outright. Like I said – simple. I forget the exact number (I know, I know) but I believe it’s 82% of teams that win in the NFL also cover the spread. I would venture a guess that this is because most lines are less than a TD. The Bengals have played well at home over the past couple of seasons too, which doesn’t hurt their case (15-4-1).
Bills: This will scare some people, and me a bit as well, but I think the Bills will beat the Patriots this week. People will remember week 1 the Pats started rolling the Steelers and a last second TD made it a seven point game. However, the Steelers screwed up a couple great chances to score and have the lead in that game. It wasn’t as lopsided as people may remember. The Bills defense played great against Luck and the Colts last week and I look for a repeat performance against Brady.
Jets: I’m just not sure why the Colts are giving seven points here. Sure, they are at home but I pegged this as Colts -3 at best. I’ll take four more points than I think I deserve. The Bills were able to put up 147 rushing yards against the Colts and if you missed Chris Ivory’s performance against the Browns he’s probably salivating. The Jets should be able to grind clock and keep this close. I love the points.
Bears: If I had to rank my five, this would be my least confident but I still like it. It’s another fishy line and I bet 70% of bets will be on the Cardinals. In week 1 the Bears hung around with the Packers and the Cards are not quite to the Packers level. Forte was a beast and Cutler was not that great but he should be better (yeah, that’s a big should). I’ll try to take advantage of a home team against a team that doesn’t always travel well.
Lions: Sure the Lions lost week 1 but did you expect them to win? They never win out west. Actually they don’t win on the road often at all but I’m not quite sure the Vikings are ready to be favored over Detroit. Perhaps the 49ers are not being given enough credit but the Vikes offense produced only three points last week against a not so deep San Fran defense. The Lions will put up points and I’m not quite sure if Minnesota will keep up. The Lions have a great rush defense and can slow up Peterson. I expected Detroit to be a small favorite and will gladly take the points.