NFL Week 1 Picks Against The Spread – 5 Best Bets

Hi there! It feels good to be making NFL picks again.

Well, my love of traveling has interfered with my love of sports so I will not be joining the Las Vegas Super Contest this year.  I will be overseas (Asia/Europe) for the first five weeks of the season so my full attention won’t be on the NFL.

For those that don’t know the Las Vegas Super Contest is a HUGE sports handicapping contest that takes place each year during the NFL season.  Each week every contestant must pick 5 games against the spread. At the end of the year, the contestant with the best winning percentage takes down the top prize. The entry fee is $1,500 and last years top prize was $734,000.

So, instead of being in this contest I will be posting my top five picks each week.  I’ve done well with NFL betting in the past, but I never forced myself to pick 5 games.  If I only like 2 games, I only bet 2 games. This year I will see how picking 5 each weeks goes.

Week 1 Picks
Kansas City Chiefs +1
Miami Dolphins -3.5
Dallas Cowboys -5
Tennessee Titans +3
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

I have more favorites than I typically like to bet, but week 1 can be a little tricky so I’m sticking with my initial reactions upon studying the lines.

Chiefs – I think Kansas City is a better team than the Texans so the fact I’m getting a point is a small bonus.  I anticipate this being a slow, low scoring game with KC coming out on top.  I think the Chiefs improved more over the off season as well, on top of already having a better team.

Dolphins: I was hoping to see Miami at anything less than five points.  The Redskins are a hot mess and full of distractions.  As much as I’d like to see Kirk Cousins perform well he’s 2-7 as a starter with 18 TDs/19INTs. The Skins defense should still be poor and I think Lamar Miller and Tannehill put up big numbers.

Cowboys: This is probably my least confident pick because I hate giving points and I do think the Giants are better than their record from last season. That being said, Dallas should have a solid ground game even with the departure of Murray and Romo will be Romo.  Eli had one of his better season last year but I look for him to regress to his turnover prone self.

Titans: This game is a bit tricky.  Two rookie QB’s with the spot light on them.  Winston Vs Mariota (again).  Mariota got the better of the two last time they met in the Rose Bowl and I think Mariota gets the W this time as well.  Marcus has looked better in the pre-season and I think this will show in week 1.

Eagles: I believe in Kelly’s offense.  I also believe that the Eagles defense will be better than last season (although maybe not by a huge margin).  This should be enough to escape the Falcons on the road.  Atlanta can (and probably will) put up some points as well but I’m not confident their defense has improved enough to deal with Philly in the opening week.

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